Arsenal – Napoli – 11 April 2019

Hard to see Arsenal lose this game at home

Arsenal is expected to continue its good form at home, but we need to balance the bet a little bit, should Napoli find the form and make a draw.


Recommendation:
Arsenal DNB (draw no bet)
Odds:
1.68 at NairaBET

11 April, 20:00
Sport: Football
Country: England and Italy
League: Champions League 
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Arsenal

Arsenal is a completely different team at home compared to away. Has 14-2-1 in the Premier League, where the only loss came against Man City. Won against Spurs, Chelsea and Man United at Emirates in the league. Has done pretty much the same at home even in the Europa League, which, however, is not as impressive in the same way when the opposition was clearly worse than Napoli.

Compared to the weekend’s weak league match against Everton, the squad situation looks even better. Koscielny, Xhaka, and Torreira might be back on the pitch. If that happens that will be a clear plus. There are also alternatives and choices to be made on the offensive midfield position (Ramsey or Ozil) and the forward position (Lacazette or Aubameyang). A big advantage is that Emery has players who can change the match flow available on the bench, as this has often been a success factor this year.

Possible eleven:
Cech
Mustafi, Koscielny, Sokratis
Maitland-Niles, Xhaka, Torreira, Kolasinac
Iwobi, Ramsey
Aubameyang

Napoli

Napoli has a bit confusing form. The loss against Empoli was followed up by a draw against Bologna this Sunday (despite one man more on the pitch for one hour). Has ended up in a no man’s land in the league as it is too far up to Juventus and down to Inter, Milan, Atalanta, Roma and Lazio. So every league match is really that important at the moment. Hence, only the Europa League left to play for.

Napoli has also been struck with injuries to key players like Insigne (however back for this game). Therefore, it is difficult to know where we have Napoli today form-wise. They did impress in the Champions League group stage where they did not win away against Liverpool and PSG – but played really well.

Ancelotti is a tactically skilled manager who will probably prioritize going from Emirates with an okay result. Is probably okay with a cross and cries not enough rivers over a dropout as long as they make goals themselves.

Possible team:
Meret
Malcuit, Maksimovic, Koulibaly, Rui
Callejon, Allan, Ruiz, Zielinski
Insigne, Mertens

Recommendation

We have often been critical of Arsenal in recent seasons. However, we cannot deny that they are strong and hard to beat at home, even when facing tough opponents. The only teams that beat Gunner’s last year at home were Man City, Man United (FA Cup), Spurs (League Cup) and Östersund (in an EL return where Arsenal already settled).

Hard to see a home-grown Arsenal lose here. Even if the odds are not great on DNB, money back on the draw feels like a good bet.

DNB or Draw No Bet means that you get your money back if there is no winner in the game. Hence, you will win if Arsenal wins, get your money back on a draw and lose if Napoli wins.

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